Keeping Security in Shape

Terrorism vs Security = Offensive vs. Defense

I see the terrorism/global crime vs. protective authorities in terms of offense versus defense. Those on offense are the ones that are always "thinking outside the box" finding new ways to penetrate defenses and accomplish their mission. The US Homeland Security apparatus is not equipped to "think outside the box" and is stuck in static defensive mode. I have not encountered one single TSA agent that demonstrated initiative or creativity in executing his or her job. The activities and decision making processes of customs, border patrol, and many other protective service agents are bound by policies and procedures that were developed in response to past terrorist or criminal actions not in anticipation of how best a bad guy may accomplish his objective. What is kind of comical is that when there is "actionable intelligence" the DHS sends out press releases of their stepped up security practices - talk about tipping your hand.
When security/military forces are on offense -  disrupting and targeting criminal/terrorist organizations or cells, then you see the "thinking outside the box" phenomenon in play.

Aviation Security

Apparently people are being rubbed the wrong way when confronted with airport security. The TSA is turning into such a behemoth of under trained government employees, we might have better luck with the Keystone Cops. Unfortunately the chances that a government operated aviation security entity will execute their mission with the highest degree of competence is slim and none. Though much as been talked about the possibility of replicating Israel's success, it will be impossible to implement in the US. Here's three short reasons why:

1. Selection process for screeners: Serve in the military or a police unit, pass a background test, pass a psychometric test, pass multiple interviews, speak multiple languages, demonstrate a capability to identify suspcious behaviors, and the training process and probationary period. Imagine if the TSA screeners had to meet such criteria.

2. Armed security - must previously have served in a field combat/police unit, command experience in military or police unit, background test, interview process, psychometric test, fitness test, plus depending on the particular security unit, an intensive training and weapons course and probationary period. Though US police and federal authorities are the only armed security at US Airports, their mission is reactive not pro-active.

3. For the TSA to hire such individuals that possess the intelligence, social, cultural, and physical skill sets required for either of the jobs, they will have to pay such high salaries so that potential candidates won't apply their skills in other careers.

Israel has the advantage of getting veterans of the IDF at 21 or 22 years of age. Your general security screener or protective agent, will work for a few years while pursuing a college degree. Then focus on a career of their choosing, few continue on within the security administration. There are always fresh highly trained candidates available.

Since hiring thousands of individuals with the ability to identify suspicious behaviors will be too expensive, the TSA instructs its minions to look for explosives only. The TSA selection process leaves a lot to be desired.

US State Department's Office of the Coordinator for Counter Terrorism

A lot goes on at the US State Department from consular operations to terrorism investigations. The Office of the Coordinator of Counter Terrorism aggregates all sorts of data on top of forging diplomatic relations with US allies in the fight against terrorism. From their website:

Led by Ambassador-at-Large Daniel Benjamin, the primary mission of the Office of the Coordinator for Counterterrorism (S/CT) is to forge partnerships with non-state actors, multilateral organizations, and foreign governments to advance the counterterrorism objectives and national security of the United States.  Working with our U.S. Government counterterrorism team, S/CT takes a leading role in developing coordinated strategies to defeat terrorists abroad and in securing the cooperation of international partners.

Like with any government agency, there are always agendas of politicians that can skew a true assessment of the threat of terrorism.

Murdered Spy, was someone sending a message?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/7963441/Murdered-British-spy-found-stuffed-into-sports-bag-in-bath-of-London-flat.html

A Lot of Spooking Going Around

Espionage or rather those who partake in it do so for 4 major reasons:

1. Money (I would also include sex, drugs, or some mood alerting activity in this category)

2. Ideology

3. Coercion/Compromise

4. Ego

The recent Russian spies deported to Russia in a spy exchange appear to have committed espionage for love of Mother Russia - ideology.

It is too early to determine why the US Army Analyst, Bradley Manning, who is allegedly responsible for leaking 90,000 classified documents to Wikileaks.org, perpetrated such an act. Did he do so for the challenge of it (ego), did his allegiance to his country change (ideology) or was he pressured to collect and leak the documents (coercion/compromise). Only time will tell what investigators discover as to the origins of Manning's actions.

Wikileaks.org owner Julian Assange did not commit espionage in the classical sense he just disseminated the raw intelligence allegedly provided him by Manning. Assange's website's sole purpose is to be a destination for people to expose secrets. Assange's website can definitely be considered a tool to be used in a number of espionage operations such as propaganda and disinformation campaigns or to undermine the integrity of ongoing private or government initiatives.

A Day Late and a Dollar Short

Detection is one of the first steps in prevention of an impending terrorist or other criminal attack. 17 years after the first attack on the World Trade Center, a new government security initiative is taking shape. better late than never.

http://www.cnn.com/2010/CRIME/06/30/parking.lot.security/index.html?hpt=C2

Turkey challenging Israel

On the surface Israel is in a position of "damned if we do, damned if we don't" - enforce the blockade. The only "out" that Israel has from Turkey's spot light grabbing maneuver is if Israel turns the tables on Turkey and Hamas by blocking the ship's arrival and demanding the immediate release of Gilad Shalit, before any aid will reach Gaza. Shalit's well being has been a forgotten issue by much of the global media and political leadership, perhaps with the eyes of the world on Gaza, hamas will capitulate.
If Turkey persists in delivering aid without influencing Hamas to release Shalit, Israel's counter action will be seen in the form of more military and humanitarian aid for Greece and for the Kurdish Diaspora - a country and a people often at odds with Turkey.

How the Threat of Terrorism Defeated Comedy Central

Background: Creators of the satirical animated series "South Park", Matt Stone and Trey Parker, received implied threats from a group operating a radical Muslim website called RevolutionMuslim.com. At the heart of the matter was the satirical depiction of the Muslim prophet Mohammad in one of South Park's upcoming episodes. The Muslim Revolution published an open warning to Stone and Parker saying that they may end up like assassinated film maker Theo Van Gogh, who's dead image was used showing his throat cut and dagger in his chest. Van Gogh, was marked for death when he made a documentary film presenting the brutal treatment of women by Muslim fundamentalists.

When the  South Park episode aired on the Comedy Central network, the image or satirical image of Mohammad was replaced by a bear and mention of his name was bleeped out. The main issue here is that Comedy Central made the edits to the episode with out the permission of Stone and Parker, citing the implied threat from Muslim Revolution.

Research into Muslim Revolution leads to a bunch of individuals who use the website to espouse hatred, are in a sense paper tigers, beating their chests in an attempt to intimidate others about the power of Jihadism. None of the members behind the website explicitly state their intention to kill or maim, but indirectly imply that bad things happen to those who defile Mohammad.

So, did an act of terrorism occur right under our noses or did Muslim Revolution use their First Amendment rights to deny South Park creators Stone and Parker their rights under the First Amendment?

Defining terrorism has been a challenge for the ages. 30 different countries, 30 different definitions. Multiply that number by each country's multiple security, law enforcement, and intelligence agencies and the number of definitions can sky rocket. Amongst US federal law enforcement and intelligence agencies, terrorism is defined as a violent act committed for the purpose of causing political or social change. The following is the FBI's definition: "The unlawful use of force or violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a Government, the civilian population, or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives."

 Interestingly, it is possible for people to be charged by respective states for making, "terroristic threats". The following is the Terroristic Threat definition according to state of New York, where Muslim Revolution is based:

TERRORISTIC THREAT

   § 490.20 Making a terroristic threat.
  1. A person is guilty of making a terroristic threat when with intent
 to intimidate or coerce a civilian population, influence the policy of a
 unit of government by intimidation or coercion, or affect the conduct of
 a unit of government by murder, assassination or kidnapping, he or she
 threatens to commit or cause to be committed a specified offense and
 thereby causes a reasonable expectation or fear of the imminent
 commission of such offense.
  2. It shall be no defense to a prosecution pursuant to this section
 that the defendant did not have the intent or capability of committing
 the specified offense or that the threat was not made to a person who
 was a subject thereof.
  Making a terroristic threat is a class D felony.

State of New Jersey

(1) "A person is guilty of a crime if he threatens to commit any crime of violence with the purpose to terrorize another or in reckless disregard of the risk of causing such terror."

(2) "A person commits a crime if he threatens to commit a crime of violence with the purpose to cause evacuation of a building, place of assembly or facility of public transportation or otherwise to cause serious public inconvenience or in reckless disregard of the risk of causing such evacuation or inconvenience.

The failure to stand up to the veiled threats by the Muslim Revolution, is an example of how terrorism wins, even if the threat is implied. The best tool against Muslim Revolution and potential copycats is for democratic societies to learn to be resilient in the face of terrorism.

The Dubai Assassination - A False Flag Operation?

Dear Friends,
 The recent fall out over the assassination of Mahmoud al- Mabhouh has much of the world looking at the Israeli government as being behind this action. Though a dead al-Mabhouh would impede Hamas' ability at acquiring arms via Iran and other countries, a positive development for Israel, there were too many logistical and tactical errors committed by the "assassination unit" that defies the belief that the Mossad is responsible.

1. Tradecraft (clandestine operational techniques).
A. Identities ,if the Israeli government were going to assassinate al-Mabhouh, the identities used would be from people with no connection to Israel in the first place. Why risk any discovery and having the identities of real people on fake passports go back to Israel?

B. Passports, history has dictated that using passports from countries like Canada or New Zealand in covert operations are safer because if an operation is exposed, there is no major political fallout from these two countries. England, France, and Germany are the most powerful countries in the European Union. To use these European passports is not good tradecraft but does show chutzpah if Israel was in fact behind the operation.

C. Tactical Operation Plan, Though the assassination was a success for lack of a better word, the attention to detail in terms of being compromised by video surveillance was lacking. Based on the CCTV footage released, a number of  "operatives" look in to the cameras directly. Why be so obvious, except if to draw attention to one's self? If I am a government agency planning to covertly kill or capture a wanted individual in a hotel, I would first need to know everything that could compromise my operation including how many security officers are deployed by the hotel and by my target, the presence of hotel staff, and the specific elements of the security technology deployed. It is not just enough knowing the number and locations of surveillance cameras, but it is key to know the make and manufacturer of the video, identity, and access control systems used, so the full capability of the security measures at the hotel are made aware to the operatives. 

D. Place of Assassination, though there was a benefit to killing al-Mabhouh in a hotel - his body was concealed for several hours, why perpetrate this act in an environment covered by dozens of surveillance cameras? The most successful assassination attempts in the past have occurred while the victim is in transit - either walking or driving. But even if the "hit" were to be perpetrated outside, Dubai is not Beirut, much money was invested in the infrastructure including hundreds of exterior security cameras. Dubai is an international destination of the United Arab Emirates, ironically one of the few Arab countries that have a more open relationship with Israel, why risk killing al-Mabhouh in Dubai and not elsewhere?
 

2. The Assassination Squad The participants in the assassination, may have assumed that they were working for Israeli intelligence, but their controllers could have been from Fatah, hence a false flag operation. By using the names of real Israeli citizens on fake passports, any investigation into al-Mabhouh's death would lead to Israel as well as much condemnation from Europe. If the members of the hit team were or will be captured, and it is is a false flag operation; the operatives would say that they were working for Israel. The Israeli intelligence services deploys some of the most sophisticated means of technical surveillance in the world plus has dozens of human assets of Arab descent who are trained to infiltrate and operate in Arab countries and territories, why fly in so many Europeans? The recent arrest of former Fatah officials may bring to light the full scope of the operation.

3. Dubai's Security Technology The advancements in information systems have made it more challenging for individuals to falsify their identities and conceal their international travel records. Definitely a challenge to those launching covert operations for both governments and terrorist groups. What I find highly ironic about the statements by the U.A.E. is the focus on their use of video analytics and biometric technology. The cause of the irony is that both of these technologies have been pioneered and developed in Israel. Many facial recognition and video analytic software applications that are developed in Israel get sold to larger manufacturers who embed the technology within their own video surveillance products. It would not surprise me if some of this cutting edge technology that was conceptualized and developed in Israel; is used in service in Dubai, a territory that is known to purchase state of the art technology. If the Israeli government was responsible for this operation, it is then quite embarrassing that agents were exposed by Israeli designed technologies.

4. Fallout Who would benefit the most from al-Mabhouh dead and with the blame focused on Israel?
 
Answer: Fatah/Palestinian Authority (Formerly the PLO). A less powerful Hamas, will help Fatah in regaining its foothold in Gaza and in the "Arab" street in general.  Fatah has the ability to steal ID's from Israeli citizens due to so many Palestinians having access to Israel plus homegrown proficiencies in cyber warfare. Fatah also has over 45 years experience in launching international terrorist operations which include recruiting (terrorists, surveillance, and support teams). Fatah has worked in the past (mostly in the 70's and 80's with well known European terrorist groups like the IRA (Northern Ireland) and the Baader Meinhoff Gang (Germany) and may still have relationships with former Intelligence officers from former Soviet and East Bloc countries. There is no reason to doubt that Fatah could have received help from outside intelligence professionals in putting the whole operation together. What other entity gets mileage out of al-Mabhouh dead and blame on Israel - only Fatah.

Israel On some level al-Mabhouh's death is a welcome development but it could have been potentially beneficial if al-Mabhouh was kept alive. If the Israeli intelligence services were able to track al'Mabhouh's movements and communications, it would make sense to keep al-Mabhouh spending Hamas' money and resources on weapons and then Israel could capture weapon shipments at sea or present proof to the UN or other authorities that Iran or other groups are sending arms to Hamas. Given that there is a high degree of compartmentalization within any intelligence service, (meaning information and resources are not shared and kept secure between members of the same agency) in the immediate aftermath of al-Mabhouh's death, it is conceivable that many Israeli intelligence and special operation figures may have believed that Israel was involved in the operation. However, with the CCTV video footage, and poor tradecraft demonstrated, I am sure many security and intelligence professionals within Israel may arrive to the hypothesis that a false flag operation occurred. In the meantime, Israel's enemies may start to think twice about how secure their organizations are (if Israel was responsible that is), so why should the Israeli government say anything to the contrary. But conversely, the European countries are quite mad at Israel right now. Another possible reason for the Israeli government's silence is the drop in confidence of the government, by Israeli citizens that would occur if news came to light that Fatah was indeed able to steal Israeli identities.

The above is just my interpretation of what could be the back story in Dubai based on the circumstantial evidence released by the U.A.E. and my own professional experiences and knowledge about tactical intelligence operations.

Top 10 Arguments to Doubt the "Israeli Involvement on the Assassination of al-Mabhouh:

Top 10 Arguments to Doubt the "Israeli Involvement on the Assassination of al-Mabhouh:

1. The IRA and PIRA have the skill sets and talent to pull of the hit. Why would they? Because both organizations had/have good relations with Palestinian Fatah leadership, who are getting more aggressive in defeating Hamas.

2. Israel has a plethora of assets who are Arab who could have easily been used as the surveillance and assassination squads, why bring in so many Europeans?

3. The CCTV footage is compelling to some degree, but if anyone was to view the comings and goings of any hotel, especially the lobby, it is quite easy to fabricate and link a believable story line based on the recorded activity.

4. Visitors come and go through that hotel quite often staying under 24 hours.

5. Dubai is a criminal's paradise for shady business dealings, quite reasonable why many people travel on falsified documents.

6. Where is the coroner's report on the body? How specific is the report on how al-Mabhouh died?

7. It would make more sense for for Israel to have al-Mabhouh live, spend Hamas money and resources on Iranian weapons, and then capture the weapons at sea.

8. An outsourced hit team paid by private individuals, for the purpose of causing more anger toward Israel and more instability within Hamas.

9. Such a labor intensive operation, with a high price tag for a target like al-Mabhouh, it would be far easier to kill him in transit, why in a hotel with all of those security cameras present?

10. Is it out of the realm of possibility that al-Mabhouh died similar to David Carradine, via rough sex act gone bad? What would be the official response from the government of Dubai if he died in such a way? Would the government expose such a "scandal" or cover it up with other allegations? It is the worst kept secret that Dubai has a vibrant sex trade. Why else would a wanted terrorist stay at such a luxurious hotel, without security, except to indulge a prostitute?